The Full WHO Report Is Out, Here Are Our Take-Aways
Did you know? For two weeks in February, the World Health Organization sent a couple dozen science and doctor types to China to assess the COVID-19 outbreak and China's response to it. They toured the...
Did you know? For two weeks in February, the World Health Organization sent a couple dozen science and doctor types to China to assess the COVID-19 outbreak and China's response to it. They toured the country and then published a 40 page report, which you can read in full here. Or. We could read the whole thing for you, look up all the big words, and present our key takeaways in a handy, internet-friendly list.
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Fever Is The Most Common Symptom
Symptoms vary dramatically, from none to severe pneumonia, but yes, fever was the most common symptom, followed by dry cough, fatigue and sputum (medical talk for "lung gunk"). The mean incubation period was 5-6 days, but could be between 1-14 days. Median recovery time was 3-6 weeks for severe/critical cases.
It's Not Airborne
There have been no reports of it being airborne, but they did mention that airborne transmission may have occurred in health care settings due to "aerosol-generating procedures" (stuff like positive pressure ventilation, intubation, airway suction, basically doctor stuff involving particles leaving the lungs). That doesn't appear to have been a big factor in the spread, though. Most of infections were in the early days when supplies and experience were limited.
Everyone is Susceptible
Actual words from the report. "Everyone is susceptible." There's no suggestion that recovered patients have immunity. Most cases were between 30-69 years old, median was 51 years old. 51% were male, 77% of infected cases were from Hubei, and 21.6% were farmers and laborers.
However, it appears to have had a very low spread (2.4%) among under 18s. There have been no reported incidents of a child transmitting the disease to an adult. Silver lining though, pregnant women are not at higher risk of severe disease, unlike influenza.
It Was Definitely An Animal
No animal source has been identified, but it probably started in a bat. The genome identity is 96% that of a bat SARS-like coronavirus. It also had 86-92% similarity to a pangolin SARS-like coronavirus. So definitely animal ("zoonotic"), and probably bat. It's not certain it started at the Hua'nan Seafood Market, but it's likely.
It's Not SARS, It's Not Influenza, and It Is Dangerous
A common refrain on the streets and in groupchats is that this a mild flu. It's not. It is a new virus, with its own characteristics. According to the WHO, "it is unique among human coronaviruses in its combination of high transmissibility, substantial fatal outcomes in some high risk groups, and its ability to cause huge societal and economic disruption." Amen to that last bit.
Transmission Occurs Mostly In Households
Not on the street, not on the metro, and not in a Didi. 78-85% of transmissions in Guangdong and Sichuan were inter-family. In Wuhan, COVD-19 had an R0 of 2-2.5 before quarantine kicked in. Anyone who watched Contagion during the outbreak knows that means each infected person was likely to infect 2-2.5 people in turn.
"Social Distancing" Is The Best Way To Stop COVID-19
China's "social distancing" (technical term), implemented on an unheard of scale, has kept community transmission very low. It appears to be the single best way to prevent transmission. The cost is that public life is "very reduced." Is that a technical term?
China's Response Is Possibly The Most Ambitious In History
The WHO's statement heaps praise on China's response, saying things like "in the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history" and "this has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat."
China had the entire virus genome sequenced by January 10. They have 1,800 epidemiological teams (at least five people in each) tracing tens of thousands of possible contacts everyday. The median time from onset of symptoms to lab confirmation of the disease went from 12 days in January to three days in February. They're producing and distributing 1.65 million testing kits every week. Wuhan built two hospitals in like ten days.
However, There Are Still Gaps
There's always more stuff to be done. The WHO suggests that China must "massively scale-up isolation and care," "optimize the safety of their frontline health care workers," and it needs to communicate developments and new information with the international community more quickly and more clearly.
The Rest of the World Is Not Ready
The WHO reports that the rest of the world is not yet ready, "in mindset or materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. Large-scale implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures to interrupt transmission is necessary."
Not something you like to read in a report by the world's leading health organization during a pandemic.
The Main, Real Takeaway
We may be breathing a sigh of relief that we're not a) over 80, b) from Hubei and/or c) a farmer/laborer/healthcare worker, but our role in containing the spread is not getting infected, and then passing that infection on to someone vulnerable.
To paraphrase 40 pages of doctor speak: "COVID-19. It's serious. The best way to stop it is to avoid crowded places, wash your hands regularly, and cover your mouth and noses when coughing or sneezing."
And! Everyone's already been doing that.